Japanese Journal of Clinical Oncology, Vol 29, Issue 3 156-159, Copyright © 1999 by Foundation for Promotion of Cancer Research
T Morita, J Tsunoda, S Inoue and S Chihara
BACKGROUND: Although accurate prediction of survival is essential for
palliative care, no clinical tools have been established. METHODS:
Performance status and clinical symptoms were prospectively assessed on two
independent series of terminally ill cancer patients (training set, n =
150; testing set, n = 95). On the training set, the cases were divided into
two groups with or without a risk factor for shorter than 3 and 6 weeks
survival, according to the way the classification achieved acceptable
predictive value. The validity of this classification for survival
prediction was examined on the test samples. RESULTS: The cases with
performance status 10 or 20, dyspnea at rest or delirium were classified in
the group with a predicted survival of shorter than 3 weeks. The cases with
performance status 10 or 20, edema, dyspnea at rest or delirium were
classified in the group with a predicted survival of shorter than 6 weeks.
On the training set, this classification predicted 3 and 6 weeks survival
with sensitivity 75 and 76% and specificity 84 and 78%, respectively. On
the test populations, whether patients survived for 3 and 6 weeks or not
was predicted with sensitivity 85 and 79% and specificity 84 and 72%,
respectively. CONCLUSION: Whether or not patients live for 3 and 6 weeks
can be acceptably predicted by this simple classification.
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Survival prediction of terminally ill cancer patients by clinical symptoms: development of a simple indicator
Seirei Hospice, Seirei Mikatabara Hospital, Hamamatsu, Shizuoka, Japan.
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