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Japanese Journal of Clinical Oncology Advance Access originally published online on July 29, 2008
Japanese Journal of Clinical Oncology 2008 38(8):571-576; doi:10.1093/jjco/hyn061
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© The Author (2008). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved

Lifetime and Age-Conditional Probabilities of Developing or Dying of Cancer in Japan

Ken-ichi Kamo1, Kota Katanoda2, Tomohiro Matsuda2, Tomomi Marugame2, Wakiko Ajiki2 and Tomotaka Sobue2

1 Division of Mathematics, School of Medicine Liberal Arts and Sciences, Sapporo Medical University, Sapporo
2 Cancer Information Services and Surveillance Division, Center for Cancer Control and Information Services, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan

For reprints and all correspondence: Ken-ichi Kamo, Division of Mathematics, School of Medicine Liberal Arts and Sciences, Sapporo Medical University, S1 W16, Chuo-ku, Sapporo 060-8543, Japan. E-mail: kamo{at}sapmed.ac.jp

Received April 3, 2008; accepted June 18, 2008

The concepts of lifetime and age-conditional probabilities of developing and dying of cancer are introduced as indexes to understand the risk of cancer. In this paper, we estimated the lifetime and age-conditional probabilities of developing and dying of cancer in 2001 and 2005, respectively, in Japan. It is estimated that one in two Japanese males and one in three females will develop cancer, and one in four Japanese males and one in six females will die of cancer. Moreover, the probabilities of developing cancer within specific decades of age are obtained as the short-term risks.

Key Words: lifetime probability • age-conditional probability • developing cancer • dying of cancer • life table.


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